Are One in a Billion Children Dying of COVID-19?

Paul Thomas doesn’t think parents should be concerned because he thinks only one in a billion children are dying of COVID-19.

Why do some people think that only one in a billion children are dying of COVID-19?

There were 7 deaths among the 7,780 children with COVID-19 in the study and Paul Thomas somehow translated that into a rate of one in a billion.
There were 7 deaths among the 7,780 children with COVID-19 in the study and Paul Thomas somehow translated that into a rate of one in a billion.

The usual suspects…

Are One in a Billion Children Dying of COVID-19?

In his video about face masks and face shields, Paul Thomas describes a study about pediatric patients with COVID-19.

“We identified 131 studies across 26 countries comprising 7780 pediatric patients.”

Hoang et al on COVID-19 in 7780 pediatric patients: A systematic review

What did they find?

They found that most of the kids in the study with COVID-19 recovered and had “overall excellent prognosis.”

“Seven deaths were reported (0·09%) and 11 children (0·14%) met inclusion for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children.”

Hoang et al on COVID-19 in 7780 pediatric patients: A systematic review

Most, but not all…

“They looked at 131 studies that included over 7000 children from 26 different countries. There were only seven deaths out of the 6.4 million cases of COVID-19. Understand, that’s about one in a billion if you look at the world population. One in a billion children dying of COVID. Oh my gosh! No! You don’t need to be afraid for your child.”

Paul Thomas on FACE MASKS & FACE SHIELDS: Should We Wear Them?

One in a billion?

Even if you don’t know anything about statistics or epidemiology and haven’t looked at the study, you can guess that it wasn’t saying that only one in a billion children are dying of COVID-19!

Instead, most people will quickly see that there were seven deaths among 7,780 pediatric patients.

So among the children who got COVID-19, a relatively high percentage, at nearly 0.1%, died.

If only one in a billion children were truly dying of COVID-19, then only one child would have died! While the world population has indeed reached nearly eight billion people, keep in mind that they aren’t all children!

This North American Pediatric ICU database has recorded at least 39 pediatric COVID-19 deaths.

Anyway, so far, there have been over 70 pediatric COVID-19 deaths in the United States alone. So much for one in a billion children dying of COVID…

Should you be afraid for your child?

Are you getting advice about COVID-19 from Paul Thomas???

More on Kids Dying with COVID-19

Are Kids Spreading SARS-CoV-2?

While new studies suggest that kids may transmit SARS-CoV-2, some other studies say they don’t…

Why do some folks think that kids aren’t spreading SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19?

Paul Thomas doesn't talk about any of the studies that do suggest children can spread novel coronavirus to others.
Paul Thomas doesn’t talk about any of the studies that do suggest children can spread novel coronavirus to others.

The usual suspects…

Are Kids Spreading SARS-CoV-2?

As Paul Thomas highlights, there have been studies and case reports that suggest children are not spreading SARS-CoV-2 to others.

“Studies of multiple family clusters have revealed children were unlikely to be the index case, in Guanzhou, China, and internationally A SARS-CoV2 positive child in a cluster in the French alps did not transmit to anyone else, despite exposure to over 100 people.”

An evidence summary of Paediatric COVID-19 literature

On the other hand, there are studies that suggest they do.

Another study found viral loads in children which suggests that they could pass the virus on to others.
Another study found viral loads in children which suggests that they could pass the virus on to others.

Something Paul Thomas doesn’t mention!

“Prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children indicates the potential for the virus to be transmitted through fecal excretion.”

Prolonged presence of SARS-CoV-2 in feces of pediatric patients during the convalescent phase

So what’s the answer?

Like much about COVID-19, we don’t know yet.

“Asymptomatic infection is least likely to pass on the infection, with a chance of 33 per 100,000 contacts.”

Modes of contact and risk of transmission in COVID-19 among close contacts

It would make some sense that kids might not be a big source of COVID-19 infections though, as they often are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms when they get sick.

“Two new studies offer compelling evidence that children can transmit the virus. Neither proved it, but the evidence was strong enough to suggest that schools should be kept closed for now, many epidemiologists who were not involved in the research said.”

New Studies Add to Evidence that Children May Transmit the Coronavirus

But we won’t know until more research is done, especially as much of the current research is contradictory.

Research that will be important as we consider opening up schools again.

More on Kids Spreading SARS-CoV-2