Tag: mortality rate

How Many People Have Really Died With COVID-19?

There were at least 322,306 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, which is about the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19.

Why do some people still not understand just how many people have died with COVID-19?

Why do some folks continue to push the idea that people aren't really dying with COVID-19?
Why do some folks continue to push the idea that people aren’t really dying with COVID-19? It makes it easier to convince you that you don’t need to wear a mask or get a COVID-19 vaccine…

The usual suspects…

How Many People Have Really Died With COVID-19?

If you are confused or doubt just how deadly COVID-19 has been, one easy way to estimate how many people have died with COVID-19 is to compare year-to-year total deaths.

Just over 2.8 million people died in 2018 and 2019.

For example, just over 2.8 million people died in 2018 and 2019.

In 2019, a total of 2,854,838 resident deaths were registered in the United States—15,633 more deaths than in 2018.

How does that compare to 2020?

Before you say that there were 2,913,144 deaths in 2020, keep in mind that this data doesn't include January 2020...
Before you say that there were 2,913,144 deaths in 2020, keep in mind that this data doesn’t include January 2020…

Not surprisingly, there were far fewer deaths in 2018 and 2019…

We add these 264,000 deaths from January 2020 to the 2,913,144 deaths from February to December 2020 to get our total for the year.
We add these 264,000 deaths from January 2020 to the 2,913,144 deaths from February to December 2020 to get our total for the year.

Using complete year counts:

  • 2019 total deaths – 2,854,838
  • 2020 total deaths – 3,177,144

Leaving you with 322,306 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019.

Which is just about the count of COVID-19 deaths that experts have posted.

If you still aren’t convinced that these deaths have been caused by COVID-19, if not COVID-19, then what has caused all of these extra deaths?

“Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus.”

Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020

The count is even more startling if you understand that many experts think that we are under-counting COVID-19 deaths!

“Simon and colleagues suggest that it is critical to consider that for every death, an estimated 9 family members are affected, such as with prolonged grief or symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. In other words, approximately 3.5 million people could develop major mental health needs. This does not account for the thousands of health care workers in hospitals and nursing homes who have been witness to the unimaginable morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19.”

Excess Deaths and the Great Pandemic of 2020

What else?

Many people are underestimating their risk of what could happen if they get COVID-19. Or if one of their family members get COVID-19.

Sure, COVID-19 is much more deadly if you have risk factors, but many people still underestimate their risks of getting and dying from COVID-19.

With a case-fatality rate between 1 and 3% in the United States, that means a lot of people with COVID-19 have been dying.
With a case-fatality rate between 1 and 3% in the United States, that means a lot of people with COVID-19 have been dying.

The bottom line is that COVID-19 is indeed deadly, with the possibility of serious long-term effects for many who survive.

“While most persons with COVID-19 recover and return to normal health, some patients can have symptoms that can last for weeks or even months after recovery from acute illness.”

Long-Term Effects of COVID-19

And since we now have safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines that can help end the pandemic, you know what to do.

Over 500,000 people have now died with COVID-19 in the United States.
Over 500,000 people have now died with COVID-19 in the United States.

It’s time to get vaccinated and protected.

More on COVID-19 Deaths

Are One in a Billion Children Dying of COVID-19?

Paul Thomas doesn’t think parents should be concerned because he thinks only one in a billion children are dying of COVID-19.

Why do some people think that only one in a billion children are dying of COVID-19?

There were 7 deaths among the 7,780 children with COVID-19 in the study and Paul Thomas somehow translated that into a rate of one in a billion.
There were 7 deaths among the 7,780 children with COVID-19 in the study and Paul Thomas somehow translated that into a rate of one in a billion.

The usual suspects…

Are One in a Billion Children Dying of COVID-19?

In his video about face masks and face shields, Paul Thomas describes a study about pediatric patients with COVID-19.

“We identified 131 studies across 26 countries comprising 7780 pediatric patients.”

Hoang et al on COVID-19 in 7780 pediatric patients: A systematic review

What did they find?

They found that most of the kids in the study with COVID-19 recovered and had “overall excellent prognosis.”

“Seven deaths were reported (0·09%) and 11 children (0·14%) met inclusion for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children.”

Hoang et al on COVID-19 in 7780 pediatric patients: A systematic review

Most, but not all…

“They looked at 131 studies that included over 7000 children from 26 different countries. There were only seven deaths out of the 6.4 million cases of COVID-19. Understand, that’s about one in a billion if you look at the world population. One in a billion children dying of COVID. Oh my gosh! No! You don’t need to be afraid for your child.”

Paul Thomas on FACE MASKS & FACE SHIELDS: Should We Wear Them?

One in a billion?

Even if you don’t know anything about statistics or epidemiology and haven’t looked at the study, you can guess that it wasn’t saying that only one in a billion children are dying of COVID-19!

Instead, most people will quickly see that there were seven deaths among 7,780 pediatric patients.

So among the children who got COVID-19, a relatively high percentage, at nearly 0.1%, died.

If only one in a billion children were truly dying of COVID-19, then only one child would have died! While the world population has indeed reached nearly eight billion people, keep in mind that they aren’t all children!

This North American Pediatric ICU database has recorded at least 39 pediatric COVID-19 deaths.

Anyway, so far, there have been over 70 pediatric COVID-19 deaths in the United States alone. So much for one in a billion children dying of COVID…

Should you be afraid for your child?

Are you getting advice about COVID-19 from Paul Thomas???

More on Kids Dying with COVID-19

Are Kids Dying With COVID-19?

How many children have died with COVID-19?

Breaking News – The latest report from the CDC lists at least 1,038 pediatric COVID-19 deaths and 52 MISC deaths. (see below)

You have likely heard that COVID-19 is not supposed to make children sick, so what’s with the reports that kids are dying with COVID-19?

“Whereas most COVID-19 cases in children are not severe, serious COVID-19 illness resulting in hospitalization still occurs in this age group.”

Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Children — United States, February 12–April 2, 2020

So far, while only about 16% of cases in the United States have occurred in children and teens who are less than 18 years old, many of those “pediatric COVID-19 cases were hospitalized.”

The American Academy of Pediatrics reports at least 721 child deaths from COVID-19.
The American Academy of Pediatrics reports at least 721 child deaths from COVID-19.

Some were even admitted to the ICU and tragically, many have died.

That makes it very hard to understand why some folks are still downplaying how COVID is affecting kids.

Are Kids Dying With COVID-19?

How many kids?

So far, as of late-December, there have been nearly 5,411,759 COVID-19 deaths worldwide (all ages), including over 812,577 deaths in the United States (all ages).

And many of those deaths have been in children.

It’s important to note that some these recent COVID-19 deaths in children are still being investigated, but according to reports they include:

The latest reports of COVID-19 deaths, during the Delta surge, include:

Experts have still not confirmed that COVID-19 caused all of these deaths.

Kids are dying with COVID-19, with Texas having the most pediatric COVID deaths.
Kids are dying with COVID-19, with Texas having the most pediatric COVID deaths.

Still, the AAP reports that there have been at least 721 COVID-19 deaths in children in the United States and cases are on the rise in many areas.

While there are far fewer COVID-19 deaths in children than in adults, since fewer kids are reportedly getting infected, the number of deaths is very concerning.

“Among the 121 decedents, 30 (25%) were previously healthy (no reported underlying medical condition), 91 (75%) had at least one underlying medical condition, and 54 (45%) had two or more underlying medical conditions.”

SARS-CoV-2–Associated Deaths Among Persons Aged <21 Years — United States, February 12–July 31, 2020

And that’s why it is important to continue to encourage your kids to get vaccinated if they are eligible, wear a mask, and follow all social distancing recommendations.

The latest report from the CDC lists at least 1,038 pediatric COVID-19 deaths.

Keep in mind that there have been an additional 48 52 deaths in children from multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), which is associated with COVID-19.

How Many Kids Have Died With COVID-19?

So just how many kids have died with COVID-19?

We still don’t have exact numbers, but it is easy to see that over 700 900 children have died with COVID-19.

And now we should ask why are kids continuing to die with COVID now that we have a safe and effective vaccine that can protect most of them?

More on COVID-19 Deaths

What is the COVID-19 Mortality Rate?

Do we know how deadly COVID-19 really is?

Knowing the COVID-19 mortality rate would help folks get a better understanding of just how concerned they should be about this new disease that is quickly spreading around the world.

New modeling from the CDC puts the COVID-19 case fatality rate at 0.1 to 1%.

Unfortunately, the widely different numbers we are hearing might contribute to some of the confusion people already have about the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

What is the COVID-19 Mortality Rate?

In general, the mortality rate for a disease is “the measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified interval.”

Defined population?

That’s not how many people have the disease. That’s literally how many people there are in the place you are talking about.

Instead of mortality rate, right now, what we really want to be talking about is the case fatality rate.

“The case-fatality rate is the proportion of persons with a particular condition (cases) who die from that condition. It is a measure of the severity of the condition.”

Mortality Frequency Measures

Still, differences in defining the “population” or cases has lead to differences in reports of case fatality rates from the CDC and WHO.

“There is now a total of 90,893 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3110 deaths.”

WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 – 3 March 2020

The WHO reports a case fatality rate of 3.4% for COVID-19, which they get by simply dividing the 3,110 deaths by the 90,893 reported cases.

“This crude CFR is high: for comparison, the CFR for seasonal influenza is 0.1%. However, as I will show below, this number is not a one-size-fits all, and is influenced by many factors. Please do not look at 3.4% as an indicator of your risk of dying from COVID-19!”

SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus case fatality ratio

The CDC, on the other hand, is using a method that factors in the idea that there are likely many more mild cases that haven’t been officially reported. That gets them a much lower case fatality rate rate of 0.1 to 1%.

Only more testing will get us a more accurate case fatality rate for COVID-19.
Only more testing will get us a more accurate case fatality rate for COVID-19.

Then there is the large study on COVID-19 case fatality rates that did include suspected and asymptomatic cases, Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China. They found an overall case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3%.

“Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result.”

COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think

What do these numbers mean to you?

They might be easier to understand if you compare the case fatality rate of COVID-19 to some other diseases.

DiseaseCase Fatality Rate
Rabies99.9%
H5N1 bird flu60%
Ebola50%
MERS34%
H7N9 bird flu25%
SARS15%
Yellow fever15%
Tetanus13%
Diphtheria5-10%
1918 flu pandemic1-3%
COVID-19*0.1-3%
2009 flu pandemic0.1%
Seasonal flu0.1%
Measles0.1%
A high case fatality rate doesn’t tell the whole story. It is also important to understand how likely it is for a disease to spread and get a lot of people sick. And a reminder that many vaccine preventable diseases are quite deadly!

Fortunately, COVID-19 is near the bottom of the list, and as we get more and more data, it seems like the official case fatality rate will continue to drop.

Still, since it is spreading at pandemic levels, that means a lot of people will get sick and could die, especially those in high risk groups.

Older people and people with severe chronic health conditions are likely at higher risk COVID-19 infections.
Older people and people with severe chronic health conditions are likely at higher risk for COVID-19 infections.

*How many? It’s too early to tell, as we really don’t know what the real COVID-19 case fatality rate is yet.

“Practice everyday preventive behaviors! Stay home when sick. Cover coughs and sneezes. Frequently wash hands with soap and water. Clean frequently touched surfaces.”

Preventing COVID-19 Spread in Communities

That makes it important to take steps to try and slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially to people who are at high risk.

More on the COVID-19 Fatality Rate

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