Are Kids Spreading SARS-CoV-2?

While new studies suggest that kids may transmit SARS-CoV-2, some other studies say they don’t…

Why do some folks think that kids aren’t spreading SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19?

Paul Thomas doesn't talk about any of the studies that do suggest children can spread novel coronavirus to others.
Paul Thomas doesn’t talk about any of the studies that do suggest children can spread novel coronavirus to others.

The usual suspects…

Are Kids Spreading SARS-CoV-2?

As Paul Thomas highlights, there have been studies and case reports that suggest children are not spreading SARS-CoV-2 to others.

“Studies of multiple family clusters have revealed children were unlikely to be the index case, in Guanzhou, China, and internationally A SARS-CoV2 positive child in a cluster in the French alps did not transmit to anyone else, despite exposure to over 100 people.”

An evidence summary of Paediatric COVID-19 literature

On the other hand, there are studies that suggest they do.

Another study found viral loads in children which suggests that they could pass the virus on to others.
Another study found viral loads in children which suggests that they could pass the virus on to others.

Something Paul Thomas doesn’t mention!

“Prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children indicates the potential for the virus to be transmitted through fecal excretion.”

Prolonged presence of SARS-CoV-2 in feces of pediatric patients during the convalescent phase

So what’s the answer?

Like much about COVID-19, we don’t know yet.

“Asymptomatic infection is least likely to pass on the infection, with a chance of 33 per 100,000 contacts.”

Modes of contact and risk of transmission in COVID-19 among close contacts

It would make some sense that kids might not be a big source of COVID-19 infections though, as they often are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms when they get sick.

“Two new studies offer compelling evidence that children can transmit the virus. Neither proved it, but the evidence was strong enough to suggest that schools should be kept closed for now, many epidemiologists who were not involved in the research said.”

New Studies Add to Evidence that Children May Transmit the Coronavirus

But we won’t know until more research is done, especially as much of the current research is contradictory.

Research that will be important as we consider opening up schools again.

More on Kids Spreading SARS-CoV-2

What is the COVID-19 Multi-System Inflammatory State?

Are kids with COVID-19 developing symptoms of Kawasaki disease?

Breaking News – The CDC issued a Health Alert Network advisory with a case definition on what they are now calling multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). (see below)

Kids aren’t supposed to get serious COVID-19 symptoms, right?

As we are learning more and more about SARS-CoV-2, that at least seems to be holding true.

That doesn’t mean that kids are unaffected though.

Remember, it is still thought that kids get asymptomatic infections that they can spread to everyone else. And tragically, they sometimes get life-threatening infections.

What is the COVID-19 Multi-System Inflammatory State?

What else are we seeing when kids get SARS-CoV-2?

As they reassure parents that “serious illness as a result of COVID 19 still appears to be a very rare event in children,” the Paediatric Intensive Care Society issued a statement discussing an NHS England email alert about kids presenting with a type of multi-system inflammatory disease.

“The alert indicated ‘the cases have in common overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome and atypical Kawasaki disease with blood parameters consistent with severe COVID-19 in children. Abdominal pain and gastrointestinal symptoms have been a common feature as has cardiac inflammation’.”

PICS Statement: Increased number of reported cases of novel presentation of multi-system inflammatory disease

This statement follows the release of a study in Hospital Pediatrics, COVID-19 and Kawasaki Disease: Novel Virus and Novel Case, that discussed a similar case.

“We describe the case of a 6-month-old infant admitted and diagnosed with classic Kawasaki disease (KD), who also screened positive for COVID-19 in the setting of fever and minimal respiratory symptoms.”

Jones et al on COVID-19 and Kawasaki Disease: Novel Virus and Novel Case

And an alert of more frequent cases of Kawasaki disease in France and Italy.

“In several Italian centers, where the incidence of Covid-19 was higher – Professor Ravelli told ANSA – more frequent cases of Kawasaki disease have occurred than we have observed before the arrival of the coronavirus.”

Coronavirus: Prof. Ravelli, investigation of Kawasaki disease report (google translated)

And New York.

“The NYC Health Department contacted PICUs in NYC during April 29-May 3, 2020 and identified 15 patients aged 2-15 years who had been hospitalized from April 17-May 1,2020 with illnesses compatible with this syndrome (i.e., typical Kawasaki disease, incomplete Kawasaki disease, and/or shock).”

2020 Health Alert #13: Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated with COVID-19

Following a report of 15 cases in New York City, the New York State Department of Health issued an advisory to healthcare providers about 64 potential cases throughout the state.

And there is now an alert from the CDC on what they are calling multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

MIS-C case definition

Most people will find the MIS-C case definition more helpful than the new name.

Also helpful is a recommendation to “report suspected cases to their local, state, or territorial health department.”

“This syndrome has features which overlap with Kawasaki Disease and Toxic Shock Syndrome. Inflammatory markers may be elevated, and fever and abdominal symptoms may be prominent. Rash also may be present. Myocarditis and other cardiovascular changes may be seen. Additionally, some patients have developed cardiogenic or vasogenic shock and required intensive care. This inflammatory syndrome may occur days to weeks after acute COVID-19 illness.”

Health Advisory: Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated With Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in Children

So what does this mean?

It likely means that we might be able to add SARS-CoV-2 to the list of possible viruses that can trigger Kawasaki disease.

Or everyone might just be more aware of Kawasaki disease, as there are typically at least 3,000 to 5,000 cases in the United States each year.

“Various studies have described an association between viral respiratory infections and KD, ranging from 9% to as high as 42% of patients with KD testing positive for a respiratory viral infection in the 30-days leading up to diagnosis of KD.”

Jones et al on COVID-19 and Kawasaki Disease: Novel Virus and Novel Case

And continue to be reassured that “serious illness as a result of COVID-19 still appears to be a very rare event in children.”

“If the above-described inflammatory syndrome is suspected, pediatricians should immediately refer patients to a specialist in pediatric infectious disease, rheumatology, and/or critical care,as indicated. Early diagnosis and treatment of patients meeting full or partial criteria for Kawasaki disease is critical to preventing end-organ damage and other long-term complications. Patients meeting criteria for Kawasaki disease should be treated with intravenous immunoglobulin and aspirin”

2020 Health Alert #13: Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome Potentially Associated with COVID-19

Still, everyone should be on the alert for more cases of Kawasaki right now.

More on COVID-19 in Kids

When New Moms Have COVID-19

Do the risks of separation outweigh the benefits when trying to avoid SARS-CoV-2 with a new baby?

Breaking News – The AAP has updated their guidance on newborns whose mothers have suspected or confirmed COVID-19. (see below)

Most of us are getting used to the idea of social distancing, staying home to flatten the curve, and the need to enter isolation if we actually get sick with COVID-19.

Isolation separates sick people with a quarantinable communicable disease from people who are not sick.”

Legal Authorities for Isolation and Quarantine

In most cases, even if you are in a home with other people, isolation is doable, as you just stay in your own room and keep away from everyone else.

When New Moms Have COVID-19

What about if a parent develops COVID-19?

Should they stay away from their kids?

Well, yeah. It might seem extreme, but you don’t want to intentionally get your kids sick!

Even if you just had a baby?

“It was devastating when they wheeled in the incubator. It hadn’t occurred to me they would even suggest it.”

New Mom who was treated as a PUI for COVID-19

That’s a tough one!

After all, we know that separating a newborn from their mother has consequences, just as there is a risk that a baby could get infected with SARS-CoV-2 if their mom has it.

The idea isn’t new though.

“If the mother has tuberculosis disease, the infant should be evaluated for congenital tuberculosis (see Congenital Tuberculosis, p 848), and the mother should be tested for HIV infection. The mother and the infant should be separated until the mother has been evaluated and, if tuberculosis disease is suspected, until the mother and infant are receiving appropriate antituberculosis therapy, the mother wears a mask, and the mother understands and is willing to adhere to infection-control measures.”

Tuberculosis – RedBook 31st Edition

We already recommend separating newborns from their mothers if they have active tuberculosis disease.

“The optimal length of temporary separation in the hospital has not been established, and will need to be assessed on a case-by-case basis after considering factors to balance the risk of mother-to-infant influenza virus transmission versus maintaining maternal-infant bonding.”

CDC on Influenza Guidance Prevention & Control in Peri- and Postpartum Settings

And if a mother “is ill with suspected or confirmed influenza,” which is another good reason to get your flu shot if you are pregnant!

“Mother-to-child transmission of coronavirus during pregnancy is unlikely, but after birth a newborn is susceptible to person-to-person spread.”

COVID-19 on Pregnancy and Breastfeeding

So what should you do?

Surprisingly, in this case, the answer depends on who you ask and where you live…

“The determination of whether or not to separate a mother with known or suspected COVID-19 and her infant should be made on a case-by-case basis using shared decision-making between the mother and the clinical team.”

CDC on Considerations for Inpatient Obstetric Healthcare Settings

The guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mentions the “risks and benefits of temporary separation of a mother with known or suspected COVID-19 and her infant,” and offers tips on what to do if separation is not undertaken.

What are the risks of separation?

Well, they don’t actually list any of them, but you might expect them to include:

  • trouble breastfeeding, especially if you are having to pump and someone else is feeding your baby formula or expressed breastmilk with a bottle instead of a supplemental nursing system
  • an increased risk for postpartum depression, especially as a recent stressful event, having inadequate social supports (social distancing makes getting help, even when you have a new baby, hard), and trouble breastfeeding are all risk factors for PPD. In this case, both COVID-19 and the separation would be stressful events that could put a new mother at increased risk for PPD.
  • having difficulty bonding with your baby once you get reunited, especially if it is a long separation

If you are going to make an informed decision, in addition to understanding the risks about your baby developing COVID-19, which can certainly be more severe in newborns and infants, it is important to know the risks of trying to avoid it.

Fortunately, any kind of separation for babies is typically brief.

Not surprisingly, the advice from the American Academy of Pediatrics seems more concrete.

“While difficult, temporary separation of mother and newborn will minimize the risk of postnatal infant infection from maternal respiratory secretions.”

AAP on INITIAL GUIDANCE: Management of Infants Born to Mothers with COVID-19

The INITIAL GUIDANCE from the AAP recommended separation and then, after hospital discharge, that mother’s with COVID-19 “maintain a distance of at least 6 feet from the newborn, and when in closer proximity use a mask and hand-hygiene for newborn care until (a) she is afebrile for 72 hours without use of antipyretics, and (b) at least 7 days have passed since symptoms first appeared.”

“Other caregivers in the home who remain under observation for development of COVID-19 should use standard procedural masks and hand hygiene when within 6 feet of the newborn until their status is resolved.”

AAP on INITIAL GUIDANCE: Management of Infants Born to Mothers with COVID-19

They have since updated that guidance, and while they still recommend separation as the “safest course of action,” because it is a controversial issue and separation has downsides, they now offer guidelines on what to do if mom chooses to room in with her baby.

They still advocate testing newborns if a mother is positive at about 24 hours of age, with repeat testing at 48 hours if the first test was negative.

In parts of the world where clean water is not guaranteed, exclusive breastfeeding might be essential to a baby’s survival. Did that influence the WHO’s guidance?

The advice from the World Health Organization is very different though!

They do not recommend any type of separation.

“Considering the benefits of breastfeeding and the insignificant role of breastmilk in the transmission of other respiratory viruses, the mother can continue breastfeeding, while applying all the necessary precautions.

For symptomatic mothers well enough to breastfeed, this includes wearing a mask when near a child (including during feeding), washing hands before and after contact with the child (including feeding), and cleaning/disinfecting contaminated surfaces – as should be done in all cases where anyone with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 interacts with others, including children.

If a mother is too ill, she should be encouraged to express milk and give it to the child via a clean cup and/or spoon – all while following the same infection prevention methods.”

UNICEF on Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): What parents should know

It is important to note that the WHO isn’t saying that you don’t have to take any precautions! Respiratory hygiene typically includes wearing a mask, as you can see described in the above recommendations from UNICEF, etc.

What about the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG)?

“To reduce the risk of transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19 from the mother to the newborn, facilities should consider temporarily separating (eg, separate rooms) the mother who has confirmed COVID-19 or is a PUI from her baby until the mother’s transmission-based precautions are discontinued.”

ACOG Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Practice Advisory

They also recommend separation.

“Mothers with suspected or proven COVID-19 and their infants should not be completely separated. Mothers and infants should be allowed to remain together, after potential risks and benefits of rooming-in have been discussed and allowing for shared decision-making with families and their health care providers. There is some evidence to suggest that infants can be infected with SARS-CoV-2 postnatally.”

Canadian Paediatric Society on Breastfeeding when mothers have suspected or proven COVID-19

In contrast, pediatricians in Canada do not recommend separation!

“Mothers can practice skin-to-skin care and breastfeed while in hospital with some modifications to usual processes. Among the precautions, mothers should don a surgical/procedure mask when near their infant and practice proper hand hygiene before skin-to-skin contact, breastfeeding and routine baby care. Mother and baby should be discharged home as soon as they are deemed ready and then convalesce at home with guidance from the hospital.”

Canadian Paediatric Society on Breastfeeding when mothers have suspected or proven COVID-19

Like the WHO, they simply recommend advanced hygiene.

“If the mother has COVID-19, there may be more worry, but it is still reasonable to choose to breastfeed and provide expressed milk for her infant. Limiting the infant’s exposure via respiratory secretions may require more careful adherence to the recommendations depending on the mother’s illness.”

ABM Statement on Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)

It is important to note though that all organizations recommend continued breastfeeding, or at the very least that babies get expressed breastmilk if they are not able to actually nurse if separated from their mothers.

“SARS-CoV-2 has not been detected in breast milk to date.”

AAP on INITIAL GUIDANCE: Management of Infants Born to Mothers with COVID-19

Confused?

“One must weigh the risk of the newborn getting severe COVID-19 infection, which is rare but likely finite, with the risk of undermining the establishment of breastfeeding and the consequences of breastfeeding failure, which can be significant, particularly in low-income settings. Failure to establish breastfeeding could put the newborn at risk of food insecurity and other infections.”

COVID-19: Separating Infected Mothers from Newborns: Weighing the Risks and Benefits

What’s going to happen if you have a baby and you test positive for COVID-19?


UWMC Infant Care Guidelines for COVID-19

You will talk to your health care providers, who will help you make the best decision for you and your baby.

And know that both hospitals and your pediatric provider are well equipped to keep you and your baby safe from SARS-CoV-2.

More on When New Moms Have COVID-19

Why Are Social Distancing Kids Still Getting Sick?

Why are some kids still getting sick if they are have been our of school and stuck in the house for weeks because of COVID-19?

COVID-19 has kept most kids out of school for some time now. Many are also out of daycare. And few are out playing with friends.

So why are some still getting sick? What else is going on with kids stuck at home while we are all social distancing to flatten the curve.

Why Are Social Distancing Kids Still Getting Sick?

The first thought of some parents and pediatric providers upon reading this might be, wait, what, kids are still getting sick?

Flu activity is low in most of the United States.
Flu activity is low in most of the United States.

And that’s because it does seem that in addition to flattening the COVID-19 curve, staying home from school and daycare, washing hands, and general social distancing techniques has worked to keeps from getting sick with the flu and most other contagious diseases!

So while pediatric providers are available to do telemedicine appointments, it certainly isn’t business as usual, even as their days have gotten quite unusual.

Some kids are still getting sick though, and while we know what you are thinking, most probably don’t have COVID-19.

Why?

It might be because:

  1. they aren’t social distancing as well as they think they are, keeping in mind that with many diseases, people can be contagious for a few days before they show symptoms and you can sometimes catch germs from touching fomites, or objects that a sick person has recently touched. That still doesn’t mean that they have COVID-19 though. If they have contact with others, they could catch almost anything.
  2. they caught something from someone who had a disease a few weeks or months ago and is still shedding. For example, some infants can shed RSV for as long as 4 weeks after they get better. And they can shed the virus that causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) for almost two months! Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIV), a common cause of colds and croup (seal bark cough), can also shed for many months.
  3. they caught something from someone who had a viral disease that causes a lifelong latent infection with periodic reactivation and shedding. Wait, what? While herpes (cold sores) is the main disease you might think of as causing a lifelong latent infection, there are others. You may not realize this, but after getting roseola (causes a high fever for a few days, followed by a rash after the fever breaks), HHV-6 (human herpes virus-6) kind of does the same thing. The big difference is that while you shed HHV-6 in your saliva from time to time, you don’t have any symptoms. You can get other folks sick though, especially older infants, once they lose the passive immunity they got from maternal antibodies.
  4. they have a sore throat caused by a virus, allergies, or reflux, but have tonsil stones and a positive strep test because they are a strep carrier. Nearly 20% of kids are thought to be carriers of strep, which means that every time they get tested, they will be positive, whether or not they actually have strep throat. That means that you don’t have to worry about testing the dog to see if they are carrying strep…
  5. they were exposed to a disease with a long incubation period. While the incubation period (the time between getting exposed to something to when you get sick) is just a few days for many diseases, it can be several weeks or months for others. In fact, your child might not get sick until 30 to 50 days after being exposed to someone with mono!
  6. they had a virus a few weeks ago and now have Gianotti Crosti syndrome (GCS), a post-viral rash on a child’s legs, arms, and buttocks. Although GCS might linger for weeks or months, it eventually goes away on its own. Another rash, this one likely caused by reactivation of the virus that causes roseola, might have you thinking your child is covered in ringworm (how would they get that if they haven’t left the house??). Instead, they likely have pityriasis rosea.
  7. their symptoms are caused by a non-contagious infectious disease that is spread from an animal or insect and not from another person – think Lyme disease (ticks), Cat scratch disease (cats), and West Nile virus (mosquitoes), etc.
  8. they got sick (bacteria, virus, or parasite) from contaminated lake or well water, which can cause diarrhea – giardiasis, Crypto, shigellosis, norovirus,
  9. they got sick (bacteria, virus, or parasite) from eating raw or contaminated food – giardiasis, shigellosis, norovirus, E. coli, salmonellosis
  10. their symptoms are caused by a non-infectious disease, which could be anything from allergies and asthma to poison ivy or herpes zoster (shingles).

It is also possible that their symptoms are being caused by anxiety, fear, and stress, which is not unexpected as they see schools closed, people getting sick and wearing masks, and are likely unsure about what’s coming next.

Has your child been sick recently?

Do you have a pet turtle or chickens in your backyard? They could be a source for Salmonella…

Do you understand why now?

Now call your pediatric provider if you have questions and need help getting them well, especially if they seem anxious or have extra stress from being home all of the time and away from school and their friends.

You especially want to call if you think that they might actually have COVID-19. While most kids have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, if your child has a fever, cough, and difficulty breathing, you should call your pediatric provider or seek medical attention.

More on Covid-19 Kids Getting Sick

Are Kids Dying With COVID-19?

How many children have died with COVID-19?

You have likely heard that COVID-19 is not supposed to make children sick, so what’s with the reports that kids are dying with COVID-19?

“Whereas most COVID-19 cases in children are not severe, serious COVID-19 illness resulting in hospitalization still occurs in this age group.”

Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Children — United States, February 12–April 2, 2020

So far, while fewer than 2% of cases in the United States have occurred in children and teens who are less than 18 years old, some of those “pediatric COVID-19 cases were hospitalized.”

Although this infant did test positive for COVID-19, it’s possible that the baby died from an underlying condition instead.

Some were even admitted to the ICU and tragically, a few have died.

Are Kids Dying With COVID-19?

How many kids?

So far, as of early April, there have been over 45,000 COVID-19 deaths worldwide (all ages), including 5,443 deaths in the United States (all ages).

“In China, the novel coronavirus has claimed the lives of a 10-month-old and a 14-year-old, at least.”

The coronavirus pandemic has claimed the lives of an infant and a teenager

And some of those deaths have been in children.

“Three deaths were reported among the pediatric cases included in this analysis; however, review of these cases is ongoing to confirm COVID-19 as the likely cause of death.”

Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Children — United States, February 12–April 2, 2020

It’s important to note that these recent COVID-19 deaths in children are still being investigated, but according to reports they include:

  • a teenager in California who did not have any preexisting conditions
  • a six-week old infant in Connecticut who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during postmortem testing
  • a young child (under age 5 years) with underlying health conditions in Hamilton County, Tennessee
  • an 11-year-old in Georgia – was an adult with an incorrectly reported age…
  • an infant (under 12 months old) in Chicago
  • a 22-week old premature baby whose mother with COVID-19 went into premature labor (in general, the survival rate at 22 weeks is extremely low, improving as you get closer to 24 to 25 weeks)
  • a 13-year-old in Colorado who had an underlying seizure disorder
  • a 5-year-old in Detroit, Michigan – the daughter of two area first responders

The latest reports of COVID-19 deaths include:

Again, experts have still not confirmed that COVID-19 caused all of these deaths.

“An official cause of death remains outstanding pending toxicology results, and officials said it is possible the child died not from the virus but from an underlying condition, sudden infant death syndrome or positional asphyxiation.”

Questions remain about the death of a Hartford infant, despite governor’s claim death was linked to coronavirus

While it likely seems hard to believe, since we know that children can be infected with SARS-CoV-2 and not have symptoms, it should become easier to understand that some pediatric deaths could be unrelated to a positive COVID-19 test.

Of course, that likely won’t mean that they were all unrelated, but still, it is easy to see that there are far, far fewer COVID-19 deaths in children than in adults.

That’s very important to remember if we continue to see the occasional media report of a child dying with COVID-19.

And remember to continue to encourage your kids to follow all social distancing recommendations, as even though they don’t typically get severe disease, kids likely do get mild or asymptomatic disease that they can spread to others.

More on COVID-19 Deaths

When was the First Case of COVID-19 in the United States?

SARS-CoV-2 was not around last winter. COVID-19 truly is a novel infection.

Why do some folks continue to believe that COVID-19 has been around for a while and that it isn’t as novel a virus as the rest of us know it really is?

Jay Gordon thinks that he might have been seeing a lot of kids with COVID-19 in January, well before the first confirmed cases in the state.
Jay Gordon thinks that he might have been seeing a lot of kids with COVID-19 in January, well before the first confirmed cases in the state.

The usual suspects…

When was the First Case of COVID-19 in the United States?

While some are wondering if they were seeing COVID-19 in January, some think they were seeing in even earlier.

#COVidiots are spreading the idea that COVID-19 has been in the United States since December.
#COVidiots are spreading the idea that COVID-19 has been in the United States since December.

Were the first cases of COVID-19 here in December?

“Yeah, me too. I’ve been telling almost every patient I see that, well, you know it’s flu season, but it doesn’t seem like you have the flu, it seems like you have a really bad cough. And everyone I’m seeing, it’s like their coughs are worse this winter. And their coughs are lasting for 3 or 4 weeks, instead of 1 or 2 weeks. And something went around this winter that was not the flu. Flu went around too, but there was a really terrible cold going around and you’re right, it is really possible in hindsight that coronavirus has been here this whole time.”

Bob Sears

What do you think of when you hear Bob Sears talk about seeing kids with a “really bad cough” that lingers for a month?

Since he wrote a book pushing a non-standard, parent-selected, delayed protection vaccine schedule, my first thought is pertussis too…

That isn't the COVID-19 type of coronavirus they are talking about in the cold and flu reports from December!

This has been a fairly bad flu season though, and as early as December, there were high rates of flu in many parts of the United States.

That isn’t the COVID-19 type of coronavirus they are talking about in the cold and flu reports from December!

And since it was cold AND flu season, there were already high rates of other cold viruses, including RSV, adenovirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus, and non-COVID-19 types of coronavirus.

Still, that doesn’t prove that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 wasn’t around in December or earlier.

So what evidence do we have?

Well, we have the evidence that the first strains of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan, China in November.

“From very early on, it was clear that the nCoV genomes lacked the expected genetic diversity that would occur with repeated zoonotic events from a diverse animal reservoir. The simplest parsimonious explanation for this observation was that there was a single zoonotic spillover event into the human population in Wuhan between mid-Nov and mid-Dec and sustained human-to-human transmission from this point.”

Trevor Bedford on Early warnings of novel coronavirus from genomic epidemiology and the global open scientific response
The first case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus was detected in Washington in January.

And we know that the first cases in the United States were seen in Washington in mid January.

Genomic epidemiological analysis traced the first case in Washington to a traveler from China in mid January.
Genomic epidemiological analysis traced the first case in Washington to a traveler from China in mid January.

Wait, how do “we” know that?

“The field of genomic epidemiology focuses on using the genetic sequences of pathogens to understand patterns of transmission and spread. Viruses mutate very quickly and accumulate changes during the process of transmission from one infected individual to another. The novel coronavirus which is responsible for the emerging COVID-19 pandemic mutates at an average of about two mutations per month.”

Trevor Bedford on Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology

We know that because experts can examine the small mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 virus when it emerges in an area.

“We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks. We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we’re now ~7 weeks later.”

Trevor Bedford on Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology

That has helped them track where and when the SARS-CoV-2 virus pops up in each part of the country.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus in each area is different enough that they can trace where it came from, but no, the differences aren't large enough to affect immunity.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus in each area is different enough that they can trace where it came from, but no, the differences aren’t large enough to affect immunity.

No we don’t have a time machine to test folks in November or December or even earlier, except to test those who submitted specimens in flu studies (which will be done as folks get caught up with testing new samples), but by examining the mutations in the virus, they can tell how long the virus has been spreading in each area.

And that has allowed them to create fairly detailed timelines of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in the United States.

Do any of these timelines show COVID-19 cases in the United States in December or early January?

Nope.

Is there any good reason you should be listening to the folks pushing misinformation about COVID-19?

Of course not!

Not surprisingly, these are the same folks who are well known to push misinformation about vaccines.

But why do they want you to think that SARS-CoV-2 has been around for awhile?

It’s propaganda to make you think that getting COVID-19 isn’t that serious.

Don’t believe them.

More on the First Case of COVID-19 in the United States

About Those Rapid COVID-19 Tests

A company is selling rapid COVID-19 tests that promise quick results in 10 minutes. The only problem? They are not approved by the FDA…

While everyone has been talking about tests for SARS-CoV-2 infections, it is mostly the PCR tests from nasopharyngeal swabs that take a few days to get results.

The PCR tests that nobody can really get their hands on…

About Those Rapid COVID-19 Tests

Now, in addition to more and more of those tests becoming available every day, many folks are excited about rapid tests.

How rapid?

“The Food and Drug Administration has approved the first rapid point-of-care COVID-19 test, that can deliver results in less than an hour.”

FDA Approves First Rapid COVID-19 Test

The new COVID-19 test, from Cepheid, provides results, also from a nasal swab, in about 45 minutes.

Most importantly, like strep and flu tests, this new COVID-19 rapid test doesn’t have to be sent anywhere. That doesn’t mean that your pediatrician will be able to see you and run a rapid COVID-19 test anytime soon though.

“The test has been designed to operate on any of Cepheid’s more than 23,000 automated GeneXpert Systems worldwide, with a detection time of approximately 45 minutes.”

Cepheid Receives Emergency Use Authorization from FDA for Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Test

It needs the specialized, and expensive, GeneXpert System to run.

Who has these systems?

Mostly hospital labs.

And that’s great news!

Even if the test could be run in your pediatrician’s office, a lack of personal protective equipment would still limit how much testing they could do.

On the other hand, a fast test that could be run in big hospitals will help them set up centralized, mobile testing centers.

Unfortunately, in addition to the very real rapid COVID-19 test from Cepheid, we are seeing many other rapid tests pop up that are not FDA approved!

COVID-19 test results in 10 minutes? From a blood sample?
COVID-19 test results in 10 minutes? From a blood sample?

Among the tests that you should be especially wary of are those that say they give quick results from a blood sample – a serology test.

“Initial work to develop a serology test for SARS-CoV-2 is underway at CDC. In order to develop the test, CDC needs blood samples from people who had COVID-19 at least 21 days after their symptoms first started. Researchers are currently working to develop the basic parameters for the test, which will be refined as more samples become available. Once the test is developed, CDC will need additional samples to evaluate whether the test works as intended.”

Serology Test for COVID-19

Unfortunately, these types of serology tests which look at antibody levels are not yet available – at least they aren’t available in the United States.

Several companies have begun the application process with the FDA under the COVID-19 Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) though.

We will have to see if they really work and how long it takes for them to get approved.

What else isn’t available yet? There are no FDA approved home COVID-19 test kits, even though many companies and some physicians are selling them…

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